Eleven years ago, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots met on the sport’s biggest stage and produced one of the most memorable finishes in Super Bowl history.
There have been plenty of reminders about how that game ended, but this year's championship game brings about many new storylines.
For Seattle, this is the fourth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history and the chance to capture a second Lombardi Trophy. The Seahawks' season has been defined by opportunistic defence and timely scoring, making them one of the NFC’s most complete units.
The Patriots’ transformation this season has returned them to a position the franchise is quite familiar with. After consecutive losing seasons, Mike Vrabel turned them back into a championship contender as New England gets set for their 12th Super Bowl appearance, the most in NFL history.
Here is a look at the numbers that will define Super Bowl LX.
0: That’s how many times either team has been blown out this season, so it would be safe to assume that this game will be tightly contested from the opening kickoff.
Neither team has lost a game by more than seven points. The Patriots’ three losses came by a combined 17 points, while the Seahawks’ three defeats were by a combined nine total points.
For nearly five months, both teams have shown up every Sunday. That’s why we’re here.
45.5%: A sign of a troubling trend that has plagued New England in the playoffs.
Pressure-to-sack rate measures how often pressure turns into a sack. During the regular season, the worst mark in the NFL was 25.9 per cent.
In the playoffs, Maye’s rate has ballooned to 45.5 per cent.
He’s been sacked on more than 16 per cent of his post-season dropbacks, the second-highest mark for any quarterback this century. During the regular season, Maye was the NFL’s best quarterback under pressure. In January, that was not the case.
Against Seattle, this will be an issue, considering the way their defence can make life difficult for them.
38.1 vs. 37.3: Pressure meets protection.
Seattle generates pressure on 38.1 per cent of opponent dropbacks (fourth in the NFL). New England allows pressure on 37.3 per cent (25th).
Even more telling: when Seattle rushes four or fewer defenders, their unit still ranks fourth in pressure rate. When New England faces four-man rushes, it ranks 29th in pressure allowed.
Seattle doesn’t rely on a single star. Five Seahawks defenders have 40-plus pressures.
18%: The Patriots ability to generate big plays will test the Seahawks secondary.
New England ranks first in explosive pass rate, with 18 per cent of their passing plays going for at least 16 yards.
Drake Maye ranks first in EPA per pass play on throws travelling 20-plus yards downfield. It will be up to the Patriots to find a way to give him time to find a big play, especially early on in the game.
Seattle’s defence can be stressed vertically as the Los Angeles Rams did their best to push the ball down the field, finishing with 479 yards and 26 first downs.
24th: It would be tough to expect the Patriots to lean on the run in the Super Bowl.
New England ranks 24th in rushing success rate on running back carries. Seattle ranks first in run defence by DVOA and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.
The Seahawks stop the run without loading the box, allowing them to play lighter personnel and keep eyes on the quarterback. Seattle knows that it will have more to contend with than just Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson in the backfield.
Maye’s legs: One factor that has allowed the Patriots to be victorious in these tight playoff games has been their quarterback's willingness to keep the football and run out of trouble.
Among 52 players with at least 100 carries, Maye ranks second in rushing success rate, behind only Josh Allen.
On scrambles alone, he ranks second in EPA per game. Designed runs, draws, and options have become a necessity, and if his shoulder becomes an issue, then he might be using his legs more than expected.
8th vs. 4th: Seattle’s offence, New England’s defence.
Seattle ranks eighth in offensive EPA per drive and DVOA. New England ranks fourth in defensive EPA per drive.
Both units are peaking. The Patriots' defence has posted four straight games at 90th percentile or better, helping carry their offence when they struggle to generate sustained drives.
Seattle’s offence has posted back-to-back 80th-percentile playoff performances, powered by quarterback Sam Darnold. Which unit will come out on top? It will be a fascinating matchup to watch.
Clean vs. pressured: Will the Seahawks be able to protect Darnold?
When kept clean, Darnold ranks third in EPA per pass play. Under pressure, he drops to 28th.
New England generates pressure at a top-10 rate. Seattle allows pressure at a bottom-five rate. Whichever unit wins up front may decide the game.
Second: On early downs, Darnold ranks fourth in EPA per pass play. On play action, he ranks second.
But on late downs with six or more yards to go? 26th.
If New England wants to make life tougher for the Seahawks, their defence needs to force obvious passing situations without play-action ambiguity.
428: Jaxon Smith-Njigba can flip a game with just one play and will make teams pay if given time and space to operate.
Smith-Njigba produced 428 yards against man coverage, third-most in the NFL. He averaged 4.16 yards per route run, the best mark in football.
New England plays man at a top-10 rate with Vrabel, and the Patriots' defence has blitzed on a whopping 40.6 per cent of dropbacks and pressured the QB on 44.4 per cent of those blitzes, according to NFL.com.
Darnold managed 8.9 yards per pass attempt against the blitz during the regular season, but he also threw a league-high seven interceptions on those dropbacks as well. So if the Patriots can find a way to force Darnold to find another target other than Smith-Njigba, their desire to blitz could pay dividends.
0: Seattle hasn’t committed a single turnover this playoffs.
New England, meanwhile, will rely on a defence that has thrived on disguises, pressure, and discipline — and on cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who has allowed a passer rating of 12.8 when targeted this post-season.
While Darnold has done a great job of eliminating mistakes in the playoffs, this is a quarterback who had a league-high 20 turnovers during the regular season.
Eli Manning was the last quarterback to lead his team to the Super Bowl while committing the most turnovers. He ended up beating a Patriots team that was looking to complete its undefeated season.
The Patriots will try to avoid falling into the trap of thinking Darnold is turnover-proof now.
6-0 and 37-22: For those who are superstitious, Seattle is 6-0 in its all-navy uniforms this season. However, history suggests that navy isn't a favourable colour in the Super Bowl, with teams wearing those colours 1-5 all-time.
Teams wearing white have found more success with a 37–22 record, and New England hasn’t lost in white all season.
These numbers won't decide the Super Bowl but it's tough to ignore the trend.
